NY Scratch-Offs Running Out of Top Prizes (Hazard Model)
"How many top prizes are left" is the wrong question. The right question is how likely is the next top prize to be claimed before you finish your buy. A game with one top prize remaining and 200,000 weekly tickets sold is a very different bet than a game with three top prizes remaining and 20,000 weekly tickets sold — even though both look fine on the official prize chart. We modeled both and put the answer below.
What "Hazard" Actually Measures
A hazard rate is just a fancy way of saying conditional probability of an event happening in the next chunk of time, given it has not happened yet. In actuarial work it is used for life expectancy. In reliability engineering it is used to model when a part will fail. In our case, the "event" is the last top prize being claimed.
It depends on three numbers, all of which we get from official New York Lottery data:
- m = top prizes still unclaimed
- N = total tickets that still exist in the print run (sold + unsold)
- k = expected tickets that will be sold in the next 30 days, based on the live claim-velocity estimate
The hypergeometric formula then asks: if you draw k tickets without replacement from a pool that contains m top-prize tickets, what is the chance that at least one of them is a top prize? The answer is one minus the probability they all get missed:
P(top prize claimed in 30 days) = 1 − ∏j=0..k-1 (N − m − j) / (N − j)
Plug real numbers in and you get a single percentage you can compare across games regardless of price tier or prize structure.
Why "Prizes Remaining" Alone Lies to You
Imagine two $20 games, both showing 1 top prize remaining:
| Signal | Game A | Game B |
|---|---|---|
| Top prizes left | 1 | 1 |
| Tickets remaining in print run | 180,000 | 4,200,000 |
| Average weekly sell-through | 40,000 | 50,000 |
| 30-day extinction probability | ~52% | ~3% |
The static "1 top prize left" badge looks identical on the lottery website. The hazard model surfaces what actually matters: Game A is one good month away from losing its jackpot, and Game B is essentially safe. Once that top prize on Game A is gone, the maximum payout drops by orders of magnitude and every remaining ticket becomes a fundamentally worse bet at the same $20 price.
How We Estimate Live Velocity
The official Lottery feed publishes daily prizes-claimed totals per game. We compute a 7-day rolling average of incremental claims, scale it back to total tickets using each game's published prize structure, and use that as the expected sell-through over the next 30 days. This is materially more accurate than the legacy "spread the print run evenly across 180 days" assumption that most third-party trackers still use, especially for games that are unusually hot or unusually cold.
For example, a $30 game we re-tested at launch showed a hazard of 0.14% under the flat-velocity assumption. Under live velocity (it was selling 3x the assumed rate that week) the same model returned 22.33%. Same math, more accurate input, very different decision.
How To Use This in Practice
- Before buying a high-priced game, open the live widget above and check whether it appears in the high-hazard list. If it does, ask yourself whether you are buying for the jackpot (skip it) or for mid-tier prizes (the hazard is less of an issue).
- If you are jackpot-chasing, the goal is to find games with low hazard and a top prize you actually care about. Cross-reference the badge against our Smart Score rankings.
- If you are deliberately chasing the last top prize — some players see a 50%+ hazard as an "almost won" signal — just know that you are taking on much higher variance and the math is still against you. The chance the prize gets claimed by someone else in the same 30 days is by definition above 50%.
- Combine with the prize-pool view. A game can have an extinct top prize but still have a healthy mid-tier remaining. Click any card above to see the full prize breakdown on the game's page.
Limitations & Honesty
- Claim lag. Players have up to a year to claim a top prize. A "remaining" count of 1 may already be 0 in reality and just not yet processed by the Lottery. The hazard model treats the published count as ground truth.
- 30 days is a choice, not a law. We picked 30 days because it matches the typical delivery cadence and because most players plan their buys week-to-week. The same model can be parameterized for 7, 14, or 90 days.
- Velocity can shift. If a game suddenly goes viral or a new game launches and cannibalizes sales, our 7-day rolling estimate will lag reality by a few days.
- This is not advice. Scratch-offs are negative-EV in expectation. The hazard model helps you avoid the worst bets and find the least-bad ones — it does not turn lottery into investing.
Bottom Line
The official "prizes remaining" count tells you the present. The hazard model tells you the near future. Before dropping $20 or $30 on a single ticket, glance at the badge above — if a game is in the dark-red bucket, the headline jackpot is statistically more likely than not to be gone before your next paycheck. There are usually better options at the same price tier with single-digit hazard.
Live Smart Score Rankings
Top-prize hazard is one of 35 factors that go into our Smart Score. See every NY scratch-off ranked with all factors combined, updated daily.
View Rankings →Related Articles
- NY Scratch-Off Top Prizes Left Today (Live Data)
- Expected Value Explained: What a Ticket Is Actually Worth
- NY Scratch-Off Prizes Remaining: How to Read the Data
- Are Scratch-Offs Rigged? The Truth Behind the Math
- Best $20 Scratch-Offs in NY
Alex builds the Smart Score model and analyzes scratch-off data daily using official NY Lottery prize reports and open data APIs. The 30-day top-prize hazard factor described here is the newest addition to the model. Learn about our methodology.