ScratchOffsNY
Performance Dashboard · Updated 2026-07-20

Smart Score Prediction Accuracy

The ScratchOffsNY Smart Score is graded daily against the real next-day outcome composite (payout change, EV change, prize-claim velocity, pool drawdown, and top-prize hits). Across 126 validation days (2026-03-14 → 2026-07-20), the model averages 48.86% pairwise accuracy with last-7-day at 48.09%.

All-time Pairwise (Smart Score)
48.86%
126 runs
Last-7d Pairwise
48.09%
All-time Spearman ρ
-0.008
All-time Kendall τ
-0.012
All-time NDCG@10
0.078
Top-5 precision (avg)
2.5%
Top-10 precision (avg)
8.7%
Validation samples
126

How to read this

Every day after a fresh NY Lottery snapshot, we re-grade the previous day's Smart Score ranking against what actually happened. The "actual" outcome per game is a weighted composite: 30% Δpayout, 20% Δexpected value, 30% prize-claim velocity, 15% pool drawdown, 5% top-prize hit. We then compute standard ranking metrics:

  • Pairwise accuracy — across every pair of games, did we get the order right? 50% is random; >55% is real signal.
  • Spearman ρ / Kendall τ — overall rank correlation in [-1, 1].
  • NDCG@10 — discounted-cumulative-gain at top-10 (how well our top-10 ordering captures the actual top-10 by composite outcome).
  • Top-5 / Top-10 precision — fraction of our top-K that landed in the actual top-K. With only ~65 games in the active set, expected random precision for Top-5 is ~7.7%, so trends matter more than absolute values.

Smart Score validation — full daily history (126 runs)

Every published validation day, no aggregation, newest first.

DatePairwiseSpearmanKendallNDCG@10Top-5Top-10Games
2026-07-20 54.58% 0.140 0.094 0.067 0% 30% 68
2026-07-19 42.88% -0.197 -0.138 0.005 0% 0% 68
2026-07-18 49.71% 0.006 0.002 0.013 0% 10% 68
2026-07-17 48.63% -0.038 -0.023 0.012 0% 10% 68
2026-07-16 46.44% -0.088 -0.057 0.056 0% 10% 68
2026-07-15 49.38% -0.007 -0.004 0.165 0% 20% 67
2026-07-14 45.00% -0.143 -0.095 0.077 0% 10% 67
2026-07-13 44.30% -0.141 -0.101 0.009 0% 10% 67
2026-07-12 47.89% -0.065 -0.039 0.011 0% 0% 67
2026-07-11 54.56% 0.136 0.094 0.208 20% 20% 67
2026-07-10 46.19% -0.094 -0.072 0.050 0% 10% 67
2026-07-09 52.45% 0.083 0.053 0.009 0% 10% 67
2026-07-08 49.73% 0.008 -0.001 0.014 20% 10% 67
2026-07-07 53.39% 0.108 0.071 0.010 0% 10% 64
2026-07-06 48.46% -0.038 -0.028 0.073 20% 20% 64
2026-07-05 47.19% -0.065 -0.054 0.010 0% 10% 64
2026-07-04 54.65% 0.150 0.095 0.158 0% 20% 64
2026-07-03 52.90% 0.083 0.067 0.013 0% 20% 64
2026-07-02 49.16% -0.015 -0.015 0.123 0% 20% 64
2026-07-01 48.76% -0.022 -0.023 0.053 0% 10% 64
2026-06-30 50.37% 0.024 0.013 0.054 0% 20% 64
2026-06-29 45.28% -0.129 -0.087 0.005 0% 10% 64
2026-06-28 52.19% 0.067 0.048 0.174 0% 20% 64
2026-06-27 47.86% -0.066 -0.040 0.007 0% 0% 64
2026-06-26 50.60% 0.009 0.019 0.062 0% 10% 64
2026-06-25 46.32% -0.102 -0.071 0.121 0% 30% 64
2026-06-24 58.55% 0.246 0.173 0.294 0% 20% 64
2026-06-23 50.05% 0.005 0.006 0.046 0% 10% 64
2026-06-22 47.06% -0.084 -0.054 0.014 0% 20% 64
2026-06-21 49.98% 0.004 0.006 0.006 0% 10% 64
2026-06-20 48.08% -0.056 -0.033 0.076 0% 20% 64
2026-06-19 47.43% -0.065 -0.047 0.008 0% 0% 64
2026-06-18 50.37% 0.012 0.012 0.006 0% 10% 64
2026-06-17 45.22% -0.116 -0.091 0.122 20% 20% 64
2026-06-16 51.84% 0.062 0.040 0.106 0% 20% 64
2026-06-15 47.21% -0.080 -0.053 0.118 20% 20% 64
2026-06-14 51.16% 0.044 0.026 0.318 0% 0% 65
2026-06-13 55.19% 0.162 0.107 0.015 0% 10% 65
2026-06-12 45.14% -0.130 -0.091 0.010 0% 0% 65
2026-06-11 53.91% 0.108 0.082 0.341 20% 30% 65
2026-06-10 47.78% -0.064 -0.040 0.053 0% 10% 65
2026-06-09 53.31% 0.137 0.072 0.092 0% 20% 65
2026-06-08 46.04% -0.073 -0.075 0.006 0% 0% 65
2026-06-07 50.22% 0.038 0.010 0.013 0% 0% 65
2026-06-06 50.89% 0.024 0.021 0.008 0% 0% 65
2026-06-05 57.05% 0.228 0.148 0.176 0% 20% 65
2026-06-04 50.00% 0.018 0.005 0.008 0% 10% 65
2026-06-03 53.67% 0.109 0.077 0.274 0% 20% 65
2026-06-02 48.59% -0.025 -0.023 0.093 0% 20% 62
2026-06-01 51.78% 0.059 0.039 0.010 0% 0% 62
2026-05-31 48.91% 0.011 -0.018 0.092 0% 10% 62
2026-05-30 51.41% 0.052 0.031 0.063 0% 10% 62
2026-05-29 48.62% -0.012 -0.022 0.226 0% 20% 62
2026-05-28 48.97% 0.003 -0.018 0.059 0% 10% 62
2026-05-27 52.81% 0.110 0.059 0.094 0% 10% 62
2026-05-26 51.84% 0.069 0.045 0.014 0% 0% 62
2026-05-25 51.16% 0.065 0.027 0.007 0% 0% 63
2026-05-24 57.63% 0.240 0.155 0.168 0% 20% 63
2026-05-23 46.25% -0.087 -0.071 0.090 0% 20% 63
2026-05-22 61.45% 0.386 0.232 0.089 0% 10% 68
2026-05-21 49.78% 0.042 0.002 0.062 0% 10% 68
2026-05-20 49.51% 0.030 -0.005 0.071 0% 10% 68
2026-05-19 50.00% 1.000 1.000 0.000 100% 100% 68
2026-05-17 61.36% 0.374 0.231 0.017 0% 0% 68
2026-05-16 51.71% 0.083 0.034 0.190 0% 10% 68
2026-05-15 57.95% 0.261 0.159 0.073 0% 10% 68
2026-05-14 56.41% 0.211 0.128 0.221 0% 20% 68
2026-05-13 48.46% 0.003 -0.031 0.147 0% 10% 68
2026-05-12 54.74% 0.178 0.095 0.060 0% 0% 68
2026-05-11 41.35% -0.214 -0.173 0.059 0% 0% 68
2026-05-10 54.35% 0.165 0.087 0.056 0% 0% 68
2026-05-09 51.45% 0.068 0.029 0.044 0% 0% 68
2026-05-08 53.20% 0.122 0.064 0.055 0% 0% 68
2026-05-07 55.66% 0.212 0.113 0.055 0% 0% 68
2026-05-05 47.69% -0.023 -0.046 0.045 0% 0% 65
2026-05-04 53.17% 0.125 0.064 0.025 0% 0% 65
2026-05-02 50.58% 0.051 0.011 0.040 0% 0% 65
2026-05-01 51.30% 0.053 0.026 0.091 0% 10% 65
2026-04-30 52.12% 0.064 0.042 0.033 0% 0% 65
2026-04-29 50.48% 0.068 0.010 0.125 0% 10% 65
2026-04-28 51.20% 0.053 0.024 0.026 0% 0% 65
2026-04-27 49.33% 0.007 -0.013 0.024 0% 0% 65
2026-04-26 44.52% -0.129 -0.110 0.024 0% 0% 65
2026-04-25 51.78% 0.082 0.036 0.029 0% 0% 65
2026-04-24 48.41% -0.012 -0.032 0.026 0% 0% 65
2026-04-23 46.11% -0.095 -0.078 0.020 0% 0% 65
2026-04-22 50.77% 0.073 0.015 0.028 0% 0% 65
2026-04-21 46.92% -0.068 -0.061 0.108 0% 10% 65
2026-04-20 46.83% -0.070 -0.064 0.019 0% 0% 65
2026-04-19 44.95% -0.123 -0.101 0.020 0% 0% 65
2026-04-18 48.41% -0.020 -0.032 0.039 0% 0% 65
2026-04-17 47.40% -0.072 -0.052 0.036 0% 0% 65
2026-04-16 46.49% -0.070 -0.070 0.031 0% 0% 65
2026-04-15 47.50% -0.052 -0.050 0.034 0% 0% 65
2026-04-14 44.13% -0.137 -0.117 0.025 0% 0% 65
2026-04-13 48.32% -0.023 -0.034 0.035 0% 0% 65
2026-04-12 45.29% -0.118 -0.094 0.099 0% 10% 65
2026-04-11 45.82% -0.122 -0.084 0.136 0% 10% 65
2026-04-10 49.76% 0.005 -0.005 0.108 0% 10% 65
2026-04-09 48.41% -0.032 -0.032 0.099 0% 10% 65
2026-04-08 42.45% -0.203 -0.151 0.021 0% 0% 65
2026-04-07 40.67% -0.262 -0.187 0.433 0% 10% 62
2026-04-06 40.19% -0.269 -0.196 0.026 0% 0% 62
2026-04-05 39.34% -0.307 -0.213 0.031 0% 0% 62
2026-04-04 37.55% -0.353 -0.249 0.035 0% 0% 62
2026-04-03 41.09% -0.235 -0.178 0.024 0% 0% 62
2026-04-02 40.98% -0.248 -0.180 0.027 0% 0% 62
2026-04-01 44.32% -0.153 -0.114 0.026 0% 0% 62
2026-03-31 44.10% -0.176 -0.118 0.279 20% 10% 62
2026-03-30 49.60% -0.031 -0.008 0.110 0% 10% 62
2026-03-29 42.41% -0.220 -0.152 0.019 0% 0% 62
2026-03-28 48.60% -0.036 -0.028 0.119 0% 10% 62
2026-03-27 46.38% -0.110 -0.072 0.022 0% 0% 62
2026-03-26 41.83% -0.237 -0.163 0.025 0% 0% 62
2026-03-25 46.85% -0.087 -0.063 0.130 20% 10% 62
2026-03-24 42.41% -0.209 -0.152 0.015 0% 0% 62
2026-03-23 43.26% -0.182 -0.135 0.021 0% 0% 62
2026-03-22 50.66% 0.004 0.013 0.124 0% 10% 62
2026-03-21 40.51% -0.246 -0.190 0.013 0% 0% 62
2026-03-20 45.90% -0.116 -0.082 0.025 0% 0% 62
2026-03-19 44.69% -0.100 -0.106 0.096 0% 10% 62
2026-03-18 39.24% -0.277 -0.215 0.015 0% 0% 62
2026-03-17 46.11% -0.100 -0.078 0.125 20% 10% 62
2026-03-16 41.88% -0.202 -0.162 0.116 20% 10% 62
2026-03-15 51.67% 0.047 0.033 0.174 20% 10% 62
2026-03-14 62.13% 0.344 0.243 0.660 0% 0% 108

ML predictor (H=1) validation — full history (94 runs)

The bagged-GBM ML predictor produces a separate ranking each day. It's graded against the same outcome composite as Smart Score, so the gap between the two tells us how much lift the ML layer adds over the heuristic baseline.

All-time Pairwise (ML H=1)
51.88%
Last-7d Pairwise
52.65%
All-time Spearman ρ
0.084
All-time NDCG@10
0.090
Target datePredicted onPairwiseSpearmanNDCG@10Top-5Games
2026-07-20 2026-07-19 59.60% 0.297 0.070 0% 68
2026-07-18 2026-07-17 54.40% 0.166 0.013 0% 68
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 48.26% -0.015 0.011 0% 68
2026-07-16 2026-07-15 52.89% 0.106 0.055 0% 68
2026-07-15 2026-07-14 55.21% 0.171 0.153 0% 67
2026-07-14 2026-07-13 50.93% 0.069 0.080 0% 67
2026-07-13 2026-07-12 47.23% -0.020 0.095 0% 67
2026-07-12 2026-07-11 50.36% 0.018 0.012 0% 67
2026-07-11 2026-07-10 52.15% 0.093 0.158 20% 67
2026-07-10 2026-07-09 48.86% 0.007 0.053 0% 67
2026-07-09 2026-07-08 57.81% 0.256 0.009 0% 67
2026-07-08 2026-07-07 49.91% 0.040 0.009 0% 67
2026-07-07 2026-07-06 53.44% 0.127 0.052 0% 64
2026-07-06 2026-07-05 52.84% 0.111 0.083 20% 64
2026-07-04 2026-07-03 56.54% 0.240 0.199 0% 64
2026-07-03 2026-07-02 53.65% 0.115 0.011 0% 64
2026-07-02 2026-07-01 52.77% 0.091 0.156 0% 64
2026-07-01 2026-06-30 52.82% 0.125 0.062 0% 64
2026-06-30 2026-06-29 47.83% -0.033 0.054 0% 64
2026-06-29 2026-06-28 51.02% 0.059 0.152 0% 64
2026-06-28 2026-06-27 54.38% 0.143 0.134 0% 64
2026-06-27 2026-06-26 51.09% 0.060 0.007 0% 64
2026-06-26 2026-06-25 52.39% 0.099 0.102 0% 64
2026-06-25 2026-06-24 50.30% 0.040 0.129 0% 64
2026-06-24 2026-06-23 60.29% 0.309 0.297 0% 64
2026-06-23 2026-06-22 52.54% 0.110 0.132 0% 64
2026-06-22 2026-06-21 49.30% 0.002 0.011 0% 64
2026-06-21 2026-06-20 54.37% 0.148 0.008 0% 64
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 51.12% 0.058 0.008 0% 64
2026-06-18 2026-06-17 54.36% 0.157 0.007 0% 64
2026-06-17 2026-06-16 51.77% 0.115 0.123 20% 64
2026-06-16 2026-06-15 51.99% 0.071 0.105 0% 64
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 51.99% 0.078 0.118 20% 64
2026-06-14 2026-06-13 55.52% 0.197 0.008 0% 65
2026-06-13 2026-06-12 51.42% 0.053 0.112 0% 65
2026-06-12 2026-06-11 48.57% 0.006 0.011 0% 65
2026-06-11 2026-06-10 58.98% 0.270 0.238 20% 65
2026-06-10 2026-06-09 43.85% -0.178 0.081 0% 65
2026-06-09 2026-06-08 50.36% 0.049 0.086 0% 65
2026-06-08 2026-06-07 51.45% 0.095 0.007 0% 65
2026-06-07 2026-06-06 51.76% 0.112 0.012 0% 65
2026-06-06 2026-06-05 53.50% 0.128 0.009 0% 65
2026-06-05 2026-06-04 58.83% 0.297 0.537 60% 65
2026-06-04 2026-06-03 53.36% 0.117 0.802 80% 65
2026-06-03 2026-06-02 60.21% 0.317 0.333 0% 65
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 54.37% 0.141 0.119 0% 62
2026-06-01 2026-05-31 54.36% 0.139 0.011 0% 62
2026-05-30 2026-05-29 55.01% 0.164 0.059 0% 62
2026-05-29 2026-05-28 56.27% 0.198 0.132 0% 62
2026-05-27 2026-05-26 61.79% 0.367 0.642 80% 62
2026-05-26 2026-05-25 49.92% 0.010 0.016 0% 62
2026-05-25 2026-05-24 50.82% 0.056 0.007 0% 62
2026-05-24 2026-05-23 57.52% 0.237 0.168 0% 63
2026-05-23 2026-05-22 46.20% -0.089 0.090 0% 63
2026-05-22 2026-05-21 59.64% 0.327 0.089 0% 63
2026-05-21 2026-05-20 49.78% 0.042 0.062 0% 68
2026-05-20 2026-05-19 49.47% 0.029 0.071 0% 68
2026-05-17 2026-05-16 61.45% 0.376 0.017 0% 68
2026-05-15 2026-05-14 58.34% 0.273 0.074 0% 68
2026-05-14 2026-05-13 56.32% 0.209 0.228 0% 68
2026-05-13 2026-05-12 49.96% 0.051 0.115 0% 68
2026-05-12 2026-05-11 54.83% 0.182 0.060 0% 68
2026-05-11 2026-05-10 41.35% -0.216 0.059 0% 68
2026-05-10 2026-05-09 54.35% 0.163 0.058 0% 68
2026-05-09 2026-05-08 51.62% 0.073 0.043 0% 68
2026-05-08 2026-05-07 53.12% 0.120 0.055 0% 68
2026-05-07 2026-05-06 55.58% 0.209 0.055 0% 68
2026-05-05 2026-05-04 47.45% -0.024 0.045 0% 65
2026-05-04 2026-05-03 54.42% 0.174 0.069 0% 65
2026-05-03 2026-05-02 42.16% -0.227 0.039 0% 65
2026-05-02 2026-05-01 51.73% 0.089 0.067 0% 65
2026-05-01 2026-04-30 50.10% 0.024 0.105 0% 65
2026-04-30 2026-04-29 51.97% 0.063 0.052 0% 65
2026-04-29 2026-04-28 50.91% 0.091 0.075 0% 65
2026-04-28 2026-04-27 51.15% 0.070 0.044 0% 65
2026-04-27 2026-04-26 48.41% -0.017 0.035 0% 65
2026-04-26 2026-04-25 41.78% -0.216 0.040 0% 65
2026-04-25 2026-04-24 54.62% 0.179 0.038 0% 65
2026-04-24 2026-04-23 51.20% 0.075 0.055 0% 65
2026-04-23 2026-04-22 46.68% -0.099 0.029 0% 65
2026-04-22 2026-04-21 52.07% 0.138 0.042 0% 65
2026-04-21 2026-04-20 48.41% -0.014 0.037 0% 65
2026-04-20 2026-04-19 48.75% -0.013 0.059 0% 65
2026-04-19 2026-04-18 47.16% -0.048 0.032 0% 65
2026-04-18 2026-04-17 50.87% 0.068 0.056 0% 65
2026-04-17 2026-04-16 50.00% 0.017 0.080 0% 65
2026-04-16 2026-04-15 46.39% -0.079 0.042 0% 65
2026-04-15 2026-04-14 51.83% 0.071 0.043 0% 65
2026-04-14 2026-04-13 48.17% -0.026 0.026 0% 65
2026-04-13 2026-04-12 48.56% -0.004 0.050 0% 65
2026-04-12 2026-04-11 46.01% -0.097 0.030 0% 65
2026-04-11 2026-04-10 45.24% -0.126 0.050 0% 65
2026-04-10 2026-04-09 49.90% 0.007 0.041 0% 65
2026-04-09 2026-04-08 46.88% -0.089 0.028 0% 65

ML predictor (H=7) — 7-day-horizon

A parallel model trained on the same feature set predicts smart_score 7 days out. With less day-to-day noise, the H=7 head is expected to converge to higher Top-K precision once enough graded files accumulate.

Warming up — first H=7 prediction will mature 7 days after model deploy. Check back after the first H=7 file ages out.

Training configuration (live)

  • Trees: 15 (auto-tuned: bumps up if 5-day pairwise drops below 55%, trims down if it stays above 75%)
  • Train window: 90 days of historical snapshots
  • Learning rate: 0.06
  • Cumulative training rounds: 2168
  • Features: 33 Smart Score factors + edge/timing axes + price/lifecycle/trend/velocity/competition + pack-turnover (retailer demand proxy) + Cox-style top-prize hazard + linear-depletion residual + interaction terms.

Open data

This dashboard is generated server-side from accuracy/history.json (Smart Score grading), prediction_accuracy/history.json (ML H=1), and prediction_accuracy_h7/history.json (ML H=7), plus ml/rank_prediction_model.json for training stats. All files refresh every cycle. Researchers and journalists may cite the numbers under CC BY 4.0; please link back to scratchoffsny.com/methodology/performance.

Data sourced from nylottery.ny.gov and NY Open Data. Independent, non-commercial project. Play responsibly — NY Problem Gambling · 1-877-8-HOPENY.