{
  "updated_at": "2026-09-10T16:30:44.258Z",
  "benchmark": "ScratchBench v1",
  "horizon_days": 21,
  "min_tickets": 1000,
  "snapshot_range": [
    "2026-03-13",
    "2026-09-10"
  ],
  "methodology": "Each day T, every model’s score is read from that day’s archived snapshot exactly as it was published (no recomputation). Games are graded on what happened over the next 21 days: realized payout = prize value actually claimed ÷ dollars of tickets actually sold; big-win density = $5,000+ prizes actually claimed per million tickets sold. IC = Spearman rank correlation between the model’s ranking and the outcome, averaged over days. Top-5 metrics = average outcome of the model’s five highest-ranked games. Days with fewer than 10 gradable games are skipped.",
  "models": [
    {
      "id": "apex",
      "name": "Apex",
      "field": "apex_score",
      "since": "2026-09-02",
      "kind": "model",
      "live": {
        "days": 0
      },
      "preregistered": {
        "ic_payout": 0.511,
        "ic_bigwin": 0.381,
        "top5_payout": 0.807,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 45.9,
        "beat_smart_pct": 81,
        "days": 105
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "verity",
      "name": "Verity",
      "field": "beta_score",
      "since": "2026-07-02",
      "kind": "model",
      "live": {
        "days": 52,
        "first_day": "2026-07-01",
        "last_day": "2026-08-21",
        "ic_payout": 0.4742,
        "ic_payout_se": 0.0116,
        "ic_bigwin": 0.5361,
        "top5_payout": 0.6997,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 36.6,
        "beat_smart_pct": 58
      },
      "preregistered": {
        "ic_payout": 0.467,
        "ic_bigwin": 0.341,
        "top5_payout": 0.7,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 36.1,
        "beat_smart_pct": 58,
        "days": 45
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "smart",
      "name": "Smart Score",
      "field": "smart_score",
      "since": "2026-03-13",
      "kind": "model",
      "live": {
        "days": 161,
        "first_day": "2026-03-13",
        "last_day": "2026-08-21",
        "ic_payout": 0.4112,
        "ic_payout_se": 0.0092,
        "ic_bigwin": 0.4625,
        "top5_payout": 0.7548,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 26,
        "beat_smart_pct": null
      },
      "preregistered": {
        "ic_payout": 0.424,
        "ic_bigwin": 0.3,
        "top5_payout": 0.789,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 28,
        "beat_smart_pct": null,
        "days": 105
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "two_stage",
      "name": "Two-Stage (shadow)",
      "field": "two_stage_score",
      "since": "2026-09-02",
      "kind": "shadow",
      "live": {
        "days": 0
      },
      "preregistered": null
    },
    {
      "id": "tally",
      "name": "Tally",
      "field": "tally_score",
      "since": "2026-09-03",
      "kind": "model",
      "live": {
        "days": 0
      },
      "preregistered": {
        "ic_payout": 0.484,
        "ic_bigwin": 0.605,
        "top5_payout": 0.825,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 58.8,
        "beat_smart_pct": 67,
        "days": 105
      }
    }
  ],
  "baselines": [
    {
      "id": "naive_odds",
      "name": "Reference: best printed odds (on the ticket)",
      "kind": "baseline",
      "live": {
        "days": 161,
        "first_day": "2026-03-13",
        "last_day": "2026-08-21",
        "ic_payout": 0.2835,
        "ic_payout_se": 0.0066,
        "ic_bigwin": 0.4748,
        "top5_payout": 0.7626,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 28.4,
        "beat_smart_pct": 16
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "naive_payout",
      "name": "Reference: highest published payout rate",
      "kind": "baseline",
      "live": {
        "days": 161,
        "first_day": "2026-03-13",
        "last_day": "2026-08-21",
        "ic_payout": 0.492,
        "ic_payout_se": 0.0069,
        "ic_bigwin": 0.4901,
        "top5_payout": 0.7231,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 42.6,
        "beat_smart_pct": 80
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "random",
      "name": "Reference: random pick",
      "kind": "baseline",
      "live": {
        "days": 161,
        "first_day": "2026-03-13",
        "last_day": "2026-08-21",
        "ic_payout": 0,
        "ic_payout_se": 0,
        "ic_bigwin": 0,
        "top5_payout": 0.6558,
        "top5_bigwin_per_m": 17.8,
        "beat_smart_pct": 1
      }
    }
  ]
}